After months of gather and analyzing data point , University of Florida economists have refined the estimate of agricultural losses due to Hurricane Ian : $ 1.03 billion .

This numeral is an appraisal of the full note value of seasonal harvest , livestock , nursery , and aquaculture products that will not be reap or market as a result of the category 4 storm . Hurricane Ian made landfall on an island 20 miles west of Fort Myers on September 28 , 2022 , and brought prejudicial hint and swamp to million of Akko of agricultural lands as it swept across the Florida peninsula .

The UF / IFAS Economic Impact Analysis Program ( EIAP ) published its detailed report , " Estimated Agricultural Losses result from Hurricane Ian . " This report follows up on a preliminary appraisal released on October 18 , 2022 , that estimated between $ 787 million and $ 1.56 billion in losses .

A part of the $ 1.03 billion red ink estimation might be set off by policy or other risk management tools available to producer , said Christa Court , director of the EIAP and an adjunct professor in the UF / IFAS food and resources economics department .

" For example , if a agriculturalist was expect to harvest $ 10 million in crops this year and the tempest put down $ 6 million worth , we report a $ 6 million loss . That granger might recoup some of that through indemnity , but we do n’t have a safe fashion of report for that in our estimate , " Court explain .

The latest story breaks down the $ 1.03 billion in final estimated losses by good group :

The five counties with the enceinte agricultural losses include :

Court explicate that while this account lay out a clearer impression of Hurricane Ian ’s impact on Florida ’s agribusiness , it does not admit costs associated with asset damages or product losses that might happen in future seasons .

" For example , we are not able to measure thing such as the cost of repairing or replace damage structures or equipment , replanting recurrent crop or replace farm animal , " Court said .

Court pointed out that Hurricane Ian ’s impacts on Florida ’s agriculture have been further compounded byHurricane Nicoleand hard freeze that hap in January 2022 and December 2022 .

" The same area affected by Ian were hit , in some cases , by multiple weather case that each would have impress the agrarian yield on their own in an average year , " Court said . " Our sight only covered damages and losses from Hurricane Ian , so this account is not a view of the total impact to agricultural production of all 2022 events that have bear upon the sector . "

homage and her colleague began collecting baseline data to measure agricultural losses and indemnification resulting from tropic cyclone events in 2017 . Since then , the program has continue to ameliorate its baseline and bear on database for these types of analyses .

" With our current methods , we can better psychoanalyse the overall impacts of air current , rainfall , and flood on farming land , " said Xiaohui Qiao , inquiry assistant professor in the UF / IFAS food for thought and resource economics department and data analyst for EIAP .

" Traditionally , data on strong winds from hurricanes were the most accessible in the immediate aftermath of a storm , think of that analyses focused on areas impacted by potent jazz , but we have a go at it that factors like heavy rain and implosion therapy can also add to meaning crop and livestock production price and losses . The same storm can also do different experiences from one farm to the next , " Qiao said .

To arrive at agricultural loss estimates , the UF / IFAS Economic Impact Analysis Program use multiple layers of datum gathered from multiple sources . The complex process includes overlaying the tempest ’s path , windspeeds , rain , and flood with the acreage , value , and seasonality of the farming commodities farm or raised in the counties affected by the storm . This overlay is combined with information about how the event affected those commodities . Finally , the economist polish their idea using survey answer relegate by agricultural producers and Florida Cooperative Extension faculty .

" We would like to give thanks those who provided and helped gather sight response . Our oeuvre to report impacts from storms would not be possible without their financial support , " Court say .

Source : ifas.ufl.edu